Mortgage rates today, housing market news, and Federal Reserve analysis — explained in plain English by a mortgage loan originator with 38 years in the business. No hype. Just real data and practical next steps.
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Welcome to The Rate Update with Dan Frio.
This channel helps homebuyers, homeowners, real estate professionals, and anyone watching the housing market understand what is really happening with mortgage rates, housing, inflation, the bond market, the Federal Reserve, and the economy.
Here we break down the stories that impact your mortgage payment, your buying power, your refinance options, and your financial decisions.
WHAT YOU’LL FIND ON THIS CHANNEL
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DISCLAIMER
Dan Frio | NMLS #246527 | PBT Bancorp | NMLS #257781 | Equal Housing Lender
524 Main St, Hazard, KY 41701
NMLS Consumer Access: https://www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org/
Dan Frio is a federally registered mortgage loan originator with PBT Bancorp. Mortgage products are originated by PBT Bancorp, NMLS #257781.
This channel is for education and commentary only. Topics may include mortgage rates, real estate, housing, stocks, bonds, cryptocurrency, inflation, the Federal Reserve, and financial markets.
All opinions are my own and do not represent PBT Bancorp or any financial institution I may be employed by or affiliated with.
Nothing on this channel is an offer to lend, a commitment to lend, or financial, legal, tax, or investment advice. Mortgage rates, terms, approvals and programs are subject to borrower qualifications, market conditions, underwriting approval, and change without notice. Not all borrowers will qualify.
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7 Comments
@Fanci187 · October 14, 2026 at 3:14 am
This is info for who believes these rates will continue to go up including this man who is spewing out this false narrative. Rates will come down including all of the homes, out there on the market. Base on Macro data , there is a lack of demand component that comes in to play in the markets that kicks in which will cause rates to come down. Please be patient and listen to only credible people. I wish all well in finding the right people to listen to.
@Chew5219 · October 14, 2026 at 3:14 am
Are we screwed?
@jayc4715 · October 14, 2026 at 3:14 am
Mortgage rates will go to 12%
@michaela.8202 · October 14, 2026 at 3:14 am
Very informative Dan!
@marshallsmith6157 · October 14, 2026 at 3:14 am
Rates are going up and they're going to stay elevated. Everything around the world is about to get more expensive and so is the cost of doing business. Don't wait lock in if it comes down later great.
@Thefaslife · October 14, 2026 at 3:14 am
The only crash coming is dickheads with overpriced homes leaving the market , ive seen several over priced homes on the markets for months with several price drops dissappear from zillow and redfin, hopefully the agents the listed these home also dissappear
@Statler_and_Waldorf · October 14, 2026 at 3:14 am
Before pulling the trigger on a house in this market, run yourself through this 5-question gut check:
* How long will you actually stay?
If your horizon is less than 5 to 7 years, transaction friction (realtor commissions, transfer taxes, loan origination, and closing costs) will eat you alive. Selling too soon in a sideways or sluggish market virtually guarantees a net loss after fees.
* Does the "buy vs. rent" math actually make sense in your zip code?
In most major metros right now, the total monthly cost to own (P&I + elevated property taxes + surging insurance + maintenance) is significantly higher than equivalent rent. If renting the same square footage frees up $800–$1,500/month to stack in a high-yield account or broad-market index funds, buying isn't building equity—it’s bleeding opportunity cost.
* Have you priced in the "hidden mortgage" (taxes and insurance)?
Your principal and interest might be fixed, but property tax reassessments and homeowner’s insurance premiums are not. If an extra $300/month jump in escrow over the next two years breaks your budget, you’re buying at the absolute ceiling of your risk tolerance.
* Will your emergency fund survive closing day?
If putting down 5% to 20% leaves you with less than 6 months of true living expenses, you aren't ready for year-one homeownership surprises. Major mechanicals (HVAC, roof, water heater, sewer line) don’t care that you just emptied your savings on paint and closing costs.
* Are you banking on the "date the rate, marry the house" refinance trap?
If the payment today only works because you assume mortgage rates will drop back to 4% or 5% so you can refi, do not buy. Refinancing requires two things: lower benchmark rates and sufficient home equity. If market valuations soften or rates stay sticky, you're stuck with that exact monthly payment for the long haul.
If you can't check off all five with solid financial breathing room, sitting on the sidelines and letting cash compound isn't "throwing money away"—it's active risk management.
And if you pass that gut check, 3 more big questions:
1) Can you afford to wait – do you think there will be a further huge increase in mortgage rates and/or a huge increase in house prices from here? (If you do not see a huge increase incoming, no harm in waiting)
2) Do you think your job is stable and/or if you get let go do you think you will be able to find a job that pays more/equal to current pay in a short period of time? (If not, pause until you have more macro economic certainty)
3) Do you think the war is over by Friday? (If not, pause and repeat next week)